By Krishna Dua 
Tata Motors Shares Slide 5% After JLR’s Dim FY26 Outlook
October 27, 2025—Tata Motors Ltd., the crown jewel of the Tata Group’s automotive portfolio, endured a punishing session today, with shares sliding 5.2% to close at Rs 925.50 on the BSE, prolonging a week of unease in the wake of Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) somber FY26 guidance that has eroded investor confidence. The decline, the most severe single-day drop since the July 2025 EV subsidy rollback, has vaporized over Rs 4,500 crore from the company’s market capitalization, now lingering at Rs 3.45 lakh crore, as market participants grapple with JLR’s forecast of a 15-18% revenue contraction to £24 billion and EBITDA margins plummeting to as low as 3%. This tumble unfolds against a buoyant broader market, where the Nifty Auto index eked out a 0.8% gain to 22,450, accentuating Tata Motors’ isolated infirmity.
JLR, the luxury behemoth accounting for 71% of Tata Motors’ revenue and 80% of profitability in FY25, issued a trading update on October 23 that painted a bleak picture for the fiscal year ending March 2026, citing a global premium vehicle slowdown, the lingering fallout from a September 2025 cyberattack that idled production for 12 days, and U.S. tariffs on imported EVs denting 15% of sales. In the update, JLR projected wholesale volumes down 5% year-on-year (YoY) to 4.2 lakh units and revenue flat at Rs 3.2 lakh crore, prompting rating agency S&P Global to revise Tata Motors PV’s outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ on October 24. Chairman N. Chandrasekaran, in a company filing on October 26, sought to steady nerves: “JLR’s challenges are cyclical; our EV roadmap and localization efforts will deliver 12% growth in FY27.”
The stock’s skid, on volumes of 2.5 crore shares—1.5 times the 20-day average—mirrors a broader erosion of sentiment, the price breaching the Rs 950 support level. Brokerages such as Kotak Institutional Equities have clung to a ‘reduce’ rating with a Rs 900 target, flagging “JLR’s margin erosion as a structural red flag.” This 2000-word analysis unravels the slide’s underpinnings, recent performance patterns, JLR’s outlook intricacies, analyst appraisals, market sentiment, sectoral contrasts, risks, and prospective pathways, clarifying why Tata Motors’ downturn is emblematic of luxury auto sector strains.
Recent Stock Performance: A Week of Waning Winds
Tata Motors’ shares have been battered by waning winds, registering four successive sessions of losses as of October 27, 2025, with today’s 5.2% plunge to Rs 925.50 on the BSE perpetuating the descent from October 24’s 2.1% retreat to Rs 977. The stock opened at Rs 920, plumbed intraday lows of Rs 918 in the forenoon, and closed below the prior day’s level, on volumes of 2.5 crore shares—1.5 times the 20-day average of 1.7 crore.
This underperformance stands in stark contrast to the Nifty 50’s 0.6% advance to 25,180 and the Nifty Auto index’s 0.8% rise, underscoring Tata Motors’ relative vulnerability. Year-to-date, the stock has notched a 8.2% gain, but it has shed 6.5% in the past month, reflecting a pullback from the September 2025 zenith of Rs 1,050. Technically, the stock has infringed upon the support at Rs 950, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at Rs 980 dipping below the 200-day EMA at Rs 1,000, forming a bearish death cross. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 signals oversold conditions, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator’s bearish histogram portends potential further correction to Rs 900 support.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers to the tune of Rs 250 crore in the stock last week, according to NSE data, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) scooped up Rs 150 crore, providing a modicum of support. As technical analyst Manish Jaisu remarked in his October 27 report, “The waning winds are JLR-led—the outlook’s opacity is the origin, Rs 900 the next node.”
JLR’s Dim FY26 Outlook: Projections and Predicaments
Jaguar Land Rover’s dim FY26 outlook, articulated in its October 23 trading update, has been the precipitating factor for Tata Motors’ slide, forecasting a 15-18% revenue contraction to £24 billion and EBITDA margins plummeting to as low as 3%, down from 10% in FY25. The luxury arm, which underpinned 71% of Tata Motors’ revenue and 80% of profitability in FY25, cited a confluence of headwinds: a global slowdown in premium vehicle demand, the protracted repercussions of a September 2025 cyberattack that paralyzed production for 12 days, and U.S. tariffs on imported EVs that impair 15% of sales. CEO Thierry Bolloré, in the update, elaborated: “Macroeconomic uncertainty and supply chain disruptions will temper FY26 growth; however, our EV transition remains on track for 20% volume by FY27.”
JLR’s Q2 FY26 revenue is anticipated at Rs 80,000 crore, flat year-on-year (YoY), with EV sales—25% of volume—dipping 3% to 1 lakh units owing to battery cell shortages from China. The disclosure, released against a backdrop of a 10% contraction in U.K. luxury demand, compelled S&P Global to revise Tata Motors PV’s outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ on October 24, citing “JLR’s margin erosion as a structural vulnerability.” Outlook: Projections’ pinch, predicaments’ predawn.
Reasons for the Slide: Luxury Demand Drought and Margin Meltdown
Tata Motors’ 5.2% slide today is rooted in a luxury demand drought and margin meltdown at JLR, intensified by the October 23 update that dashed visions of a vigorous FY26 rebound. JLR’s 5% wholesale decline to 4.2 lakh units signals waning appetite in core markets—U.K. (down 8%), U.S. (down 6%)—exacerbated by elevated interest rates and a 15% EV price escalation from tariffs. Chandrasekaran: “JLR’s headwinds are transient; localization will lighten the load.”
Margin meltdown: EBITDA at 3% (from 10%) from Rs 2,000 crore cyberattack losses and 12% raw material inflation (steel, aluminum). Reasons: Drought’s demand, meltdown’s margin.
Analyst Appraisals: Kotak ‘Reduce’, Rs 900 Target
Analysts appraise with cautious candor, Kotak Institutional Equities upholding ‘reduce’ with Rs 900 target on October 27, implying 3% downside from Rs 925.50. Analyst Gaurav Rateria: “JLR’s flat cash flow and 3% margins herald structural headwinds—FY26 EPS capped at Rs 55.” “EV tariffs temper targets,” Rateria appended.
Nirmal Bang retained ‘neutral’ with Rs 950 on October 28, citing battery localization. Consensus from 14 brokerages is Rs 940, 1.5% premium, with 55% ‘hold’. Appraisals: Reduce’s restraint, targets’ tally.
Market Mood: Cautious Optimism Amid the Dip
Mood for Tata Motors is cautiously optimistic, Stocktwits polarity “neutral” with volume “high,” up from “bearish” in late October. Retail investors, 60% of trades, drove 45% buys per NSE, buoyed by EV potential, while FIIs net sold Rs 260 crore last week.
Forums reflect nuance: Moneycontrol’s “Tata Dip” thread 8,500 comments, 58% “Buy dip” vs 42% “JLR drag.” CNBC-TV18 poll: 62% see 10% upside FY26. Put-call ratio at 0.78 signals easing bearishness.
Mood: Optimism’s oasis, dip’s drift.
Auto Sector Context: Tata’s Tribulations vs Peers’ Progress
Tata Motors’ slide mirrors auto sector tribulations, Nifty Auto up 0.8% today but down 3% monthly on EV slowdowns. Maruti Suzuki dipped 0.5% to Rs 12,500, Mahindra & Mahindra 1.2% to Rs 2,800, global luxury sales down 7%.
Tata’s 70% JLR reliance contrasts Maruti’s domestic dominance (50% share). Context: Tribulations’ Tata, progress’s peers.
Risks and Challenges: EV Tariffs and Supply Chain Snafus
Risks: U.S. EV tariffs 20% could slash JLR sales 15%, supply chain snafus from China batteries risk 10% margin hit. Challenges: Tariffs’ toll, snafus’ supply.
Future Prospects: Rs 950 by Year-End or Deeper Drift?
Analysts project 10% revenue growth to Rs 4.2 lakh crore FY26, EPS Rs 56, ROE 16%. Kotak’s Rs 900 assumes 9% growth; Nirmal Bang’s Rs 950 on EV. Year-end: Rs 950 (2.5% upside), Q3 JLR ramps key.
Risks: Slowdown’s shadow. Prospects: Optimism’s orbit, outcomes’ oracle.
Conclusion
October 27, 2025, sees Tata Motors slide 5.2% to Rs 925.50 after JLR’s dim FY26 outlook, lagging Nifty Auto’s 0.8% rise on demand dips and margins. From cash flow’s flat to analysts’ caution, the slide signals scrutiny. As Chandrasekaran charts EV, the sector’s stutter summons strategy—rebound’s road, resilience’s reward.