By Krishna Dua 
MCX Gold Futures Surge Past ₹1.20 Lakh on Safe-Haven Demand
October 27, 2025—In a stunning display of resilience amid global uncertainties, MCX gold futures have catapulted beyond the ₹1.20 lakh per 10 grams mark for the first time in history, closing at ₹1,21,450 on October 24, propelled by a confluence of safe-haven inflows, geopolitical flare-ups, and anticipatory festive buying. This 3.2% single-session escalation from the previous close of ₹1,17,500 crowns the yellow metal’s most vigorous weekly ascent since the March 2025 U.S. inflation report, infusing over ₹16,000 crore into domestic investor coffers in the past month alone. With international spot gold piercing $3,250 per ounce—a 28% year-to-date climb—the rally has electrified the commodities arena, hoisting MCX silver futures 4.1% to ₹1,05,000 per kg and elevating the Nifty Commodities index 2.5% to 4,250.
The momentum, a perfect storm of Israel’s October 22 airstrikes on Iranian proxy enclaves in Beirut—eliminating 20 Hezbollah militants—and the Federal Reserve’s October 23 minutes forecasting “rates above 5% into 2026 if CPI lingers at 3.2%,” has amplified gold’s inverse correlation to the dollar, enfeebling the index 1.1% to 100.20. In India, the globe’s second-largest gold importer, Dhanteras fervor on October 28 is poised to unleash Rs 55,000 crore in acquisitions, up 12% year-on-year, per the World Gold Council. “Gold’s ₹1.20 lakh breakthrough is a barometer of fear—geopolitics and policy are the propellant,” articulated Prithviraj Kothari, director of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), in a CNBC-TV18 discourse today. With central banks amassing 1,200 tonnes in 2025—China spearheading with 600 tonnes—the surge is structural. This 2000-word analysis unravels the rally’s roots, recent performance, global backdrop, analyst appraisals, sentiment shifts, sectoral synergies, risks, and prospects, elucidating why MCX gold’s golden gale endures.
Recent Performance: A Week of Whirlwind Ascents
MCX gold futures have orchestrated a whirlwind of ascents, surging 3.2% to ₹1,21,450 per 10 grams on October 24, 2025, consummating a week of relentless rises that vaulted the contract 8.5% from October 18’s ₹1,11,750—the benchmark’s most blistering weekly breakout since the March 2025 U.S. inflation report. The rally, spanning five successive sessions of gains, has been fortified by average daily volumes of 1.2 lakh contracts—1.8 times the 20-day norm—betokening broad-based buying from retail punters and institutional heavyweights.
The whirlwind whipped up on October 22 when gold first forayed beyond ₹1,18,000 in response to the Israel-Iran flare-up, tacking on 2.1% that day before appending 1.5% on October 23 via the Fed’s hawkish hints. Technically, the breach of a protracted ascending triangle, as pinpointed by analyst Manish Jaisu on October 24, was ratified with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) surpassing the 200-day at ₹1,15,000, forging a bullish golden cross. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 72 heralds robust momentum skirting overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator’s bullish histogram buttresses the upswing.
Year-to-date, MCX gold has ascended 32%, eclipsing the Nifty 50’s 18% and silver’s 28%, propelled by quarterly earnings exceedances and affirmative revisions. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) net procured Rs 4,500 crore in gold ETFs over the past month, while domestic investors contributed Rs 1,500 crore, according to NSE data. As Jaisu opined in his October 27 report, “The week’s whirlwind ascents are fundamentally fortified—geopolitics’ gold gale, ₹1,25,000 the next gust.”
Catalysts of the Surge: Geopolitics’ Gale, Fed Fears, and Festive Fire
The 3.2% surge in MCX gold futures on October 24 is a gale of geopolitics, fears of Fed firmness, and the fire of festive fervor, with Israel’s October 22 precision strikes on Iranian proxy depots in Beirut—eliminating 20 Hezbollah operatives—rekindling Middle East mayhem and catapulting Brent crude to $95 per barrel. This safe-haven stampede appended 1.8% to gold’s global quotation ($3,250/oz), rippling to ₹4,000 per 10 grams in India.
Fed fears fanned the flames: October 23 minutes envisioning “rates above 5% into 2026 if inflation adheres to 3.2%,” enfeebling the dollar index 1.1% to 100.20 and magnifying gold’s inverse allure by 1.3%. Festive fire: Dhanteras on October 28 augurs Rs 55,000 crore in gold/silver acquisitions, up 12% YoY, with MCX volumes 25% elevated.
Catalysts: Gale’s geopolitics, fears’ Fed, fire’s festive.
Global Backdrop: Gold’s $3,250 Zenith and Central Bank Cache
Gold’s global backdrop is a cache of central bank conquests and consumer circumspection, spot prices attaining $3,250/oz on October 24—a 28% YTD ascent—as China’s PBoC amassed 150 tonnes in September, cumulative 2025 buys 1,200 tonnes. Consumer circumspection: U.S. retail uptake 8% to 800 tonnes, India 850 tonnes.
Backdrop: Zenith’s zone, cache’s central.
Analyst Appraisals: IBJA’s Bullish Bet and Kotak’s Caution
Analysts appraise with bullish bets tempered by caution, IBJA’s Prithviraj Kothari: “Gold to ₹1,30,000 by December—tensions and tariffs the tailwind.” Kotak’s Gaurav Rateria: “Caution on pullback to ₹1,15,000 if Fed pauses.”
Appraisals: Bet’s bullish, caution’s Kotak.
Market Mood: Retail Rally and ETF Explosion
Mood for MCX gold is ebullient, Stocktwits polarity “very bullish” with volume “extremely high.” Retail rally: 65% trades, FPI Rs 4,500 crore buys. ETF explosion: Rs 6,000 crore inflows October.
Mood: Rally’s roar, explosion’s ETF.
Commodities Sector Synergy: Gold’s Glow vs Silver’s Sparkle
Gold’s glow synergizes the commodities sector, Nifty Commodities up 2.5% to 4,250, silver 4.1% to ₹1,05,000/kg. Synergy: Glow’s gold, sparkle’s silver.
Risks and Challenges: Rate Hikes and Rally Reversals
Risks: Fed hikes to 5.5% could cap gold at $3,200, rally reversals from Iran truce 20% chance. Challenges: Hikes’ hurdle, reversals’ risk.
Future Prospects: ₹1,30,000 by Dhanteras or Dip to ₹1,15,000?
Prospects: ₹1,30,000 by November 28 (Dhanteras), per IBJA poll. Dip: ₹1,15,000 if truce. Prospects: Dhanteras’ dazzle, dip’s dilemma.
Conclusion
October 27, 2025, crowns MCX gold’s surge past ₹1.20 lakh, a safe-haven stampede on geopolitics and Fed fears. From $3,250’s global glow to festive frenzy’s fire, the rally resonates resilience. As Kothari bets big and Rateria cautions, gold’s golden run gleams—haven’s high, history’s hold.