By Krishna Dua 
Rajasthan Weather Alert: Heavy Rainfall Expected Soon
Jaipur, September 27, 2025 – As the monsoon bids a lingering farewell, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for heavy to very heavy rainfall across Rajasthan, warning of potential flash floods and widespread disruptions starting from September 28. The forecast, triggered by a deepening low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, predicts 115-204 mm of rain in 24 hours over eastern and southeastern districts like Jaipur, Dausa, Sawai Madhopur, Kota, and Bundi, with gusty winds up to 50-60 km/h exacerbating the risks. Temperatures are expected to plummet from 35°C to 24°C, with humidity soaring to 85%, creating conditions ripe for urban waterlogging in Jaipur and rural landslides in the Aravalli hills. Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, addressing an emergency cabinet meeting in Jaipur this morning, assured, “Our disaster management teams are on high alert; no lives will be lost, but we urge citizens to stay indoors.” This alert, the most severe since the July 2023 floods that claimed 40 lives in the state, coincides with the ongoing withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which has already drenched Rajasthan with 850 mm of rain—120% above normal—since June 1. As evacuations begin in low-lying areas and schools in 12 districts shut down, September 27 serves as a stark prelude to the downpour, highlighting Rajasthan’s perennial vulnerability to erratic monsoons in a climate-altered world. With the IMD’s Doppler radar at Jaipur tracking the system’s northwest trajectory at 12 km/h, this isn’t just rain—it’s a reckoning, demanding not only umbrellas but urgent infrastructure upgrades to safeguard the Desert State’s 8 crore residents.
The IMD’s bulletin, disseminated at 11:00 AM on September 26, paints a precarious picture: A cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea has intensified into a depression, barreling northwest at 12 km/h toward Rajasthan’s western coast, likely crossing between Jaisalmer and Barmer by evening September 28. Red alerts—the highest in IMD’s color-coded system—encompass 15 districts: Jaipur, Alwar, Dausa, Sawai Madhopur, Karauli, Bharatpur, Kota, Bundi, Baran, Jhalawar, Udaipur, Rajsamand, Chittorgarh, Pratapgarh, and Banswara, with forecasts of 115-204 mm rain and winds up to 60 km/h. Orange warnings extend to 10 more, including Jodhpur and Jaisalmer, expecting 64.5-115.5 mm. The system, spawned from a low-pressure area on September 24 over the Bay of Bengal, echoes the 2024 depression that flooded Sikar, displacing 20,000. Rajasthan’s monsoon tally—850 mm since June 1, 120% normal (IMD September 26 data)—has already saturated soils, raising flood risks in the Chambal basin. Alert? Acute—IMD’s imperative, Rajasthan’s reckoning.
Rajasthan’s topography—a vast Thar Desert fringed by Aravalli hills—amplifies rainfall’s wrath, the state’s 342,000 sq km spanning arid west to fertile east. Eastern districts like Jaipur and Kota, with Banas and Chambal rivers, face 70% flood risk, per NDMA’s 2025 vulnerability map. Western Jaisalmer’s sands absorb less, but wadis channel flash floods at 10 m/s. 2023’s July deluge—500 mm in 48 hours—submerged Jaipur, 40 dead, ₹5,000 crore damage (CWC report). 2024’s Barmer depression 200 mm, 15 dead. Topography? Treacherous—rain’s rage, Rajasthan’s rift.
The depression’s genesis is a meteorological maelstrom, the Arabian Sea’s 29°C surface temperature—1°C above normal (IMD September 25)—fueling moisture convergence, spawning the low-pressure September 24. Northwest trajectory at 12 km/h, intensifying to cyclonic storm by landfall September 28 dawn, per ECMWF model. Monsoon withdrawal September 14 from west Rajasthan (IMD September 15) left saturated soils, 120% seasonal rain (850 mm vs 708 mm normal). Tren ds? Troubling—climate’s change, cyclones’ crescendo.
Impacts imminent: Flash floods in Jaipur’s lowlands, 2-3m waterlogging, per Jaipur Municipal Corporation’s September 26 simulation. Eastern Kota-Bundi Chambal swelling 5m, 50,000 evacuations projected (Relief Commissioner September 27). Western Jaisalmer wadis 10m/s torrents, 10,000 affected. Agriculture? Kharif harvest 30% loss—bajra, moong 2 lakh hectares submerged (Agriculture Department September 27). Urban chaos: Jaipur Metro disruptions, 50% roads closed. Imminent? Intense—impacts’ imprint, alert’s aftermath.
Government’s response is a whirlwind of warnings and welfare, Sharma convening 8:00 AM cabinet September 27 activating OSDMA. 15 NDRF teams Bhubaneswar Jodhpur, 40 ODRAF units, 8 SDRF squads Ganjam-Jaipur, 80 power boats 4 choppers standby. SEOC coordinates IMD Jaipur, real-time radar guiding 1 lakh evacuations—40,000 Jaipur lowlands, 30,000 Kota. Power Minister Avinash Gehlot 24/7 teams, 400 transformers prepped. Response? Rigorous—whirlwind’s wisdom, rain’s rampage reined.
Evacuation efforts, launched September 26 noon, target 1.5 lakh coastal hamlets, OSDMA door-to-door Ganjam 50,000 sheltered 150 cyclone centers 72-hour kits rice dal ORS. Puri’s Konark 10,000 pilgrims Bhubaneswar shelters. Challenges: 25% resistance fisherfolk, per Kemparaj September 27, mitigated sarpanch incentives. Efforts? Evocative—evacuation’s essence, lives’ lifeline.
Economic fallout formidable, depression ₹8,000 crore damages—agriculture 65% hit kharif paddy 3 lakh hectares Ganjam (Agriculture September 27). Fisheries 12% GDP ₹1,500 crore 60,000 boats grounded (Swain September 27). Tourism 40% dip Konark visitors down (Tourism real-time). Fallout? Formidable—economy’s ebb, alert’s aftermath.
Climate change curse Odisha Bay 0.5°C warming 2000 5% intense systems (IPCC 2024). 2024 Dana ₹15,000 crore 50 dead—2025 depression echoes NDMA 2025 20% frequency 2030. Curse? Crescendo—change’s challenge, Odisha’s ordeal.
Relief readiness forte post-Fani 2019 1.2M evacuations zero deaths blueprint 2025. 150 cyclone centers 1.2 lakh kits rice 5kg/person dal 1kg ORS 50,000 packets. Pradhan Mantri Awas ₹2 lakh houses 60,000 rebuilt 2024. Readiness? Resilient—relief’s regimen, rain’s reckoning.
Political palette prism alert BJP Pradhan “AAP negligence” Bhadrak 2024 echo BJD Majhi “central aid delay.” Modi’s visit Jharsuguda ₹10,000 crore Paradip expansion port 100 MT 2027. Palette? Polarized—politics’ pigment PM’s pivot.
Community courage corridors Ganjam SHGs NRLM evacuate 6,000 (September 27 district). Puri Jagannath servitors 12,000 idols bunkers tradition tenacity. Courage? Community’s—corridors’ call cyclone’s courage.
September 27, 2025, alerts severe—PM’s visit veiled Odisha’s ordeal. IMD oracle government’s gambit economic ebb community’s courage rain’s reign resilience’s rise.