By Krishna Dua 
Rajasthan Weather Alert: Severe Rainfall Expected Today
Jaipur, September 28, 2025 – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a grave red alert for severe rainfall across Rajasthan today, forecasting 115-204 mm of downpour in 24 hours, with the risk of flash floods looming large over eastern and southeastern districts like Jaipur, Kota, Bundi, Sawai Madhopur, and Dausa. This ominous warning, triggered by a rapidly deepening low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, comes as the state braces for the tail-end of the monsoon, with winds gusting up to 60 km/h exacerbating the threat of urban waterlogging and rural landslides. Temperatures are expected to tumble from 35°C to 22°C, with humidity levels spiking to 90%, creating a volatile cocktail of conditions that could paralyze daily life and infrastructure. Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, addressing a high-level emergency meeting in Jaipur this morning, urged residents to stay indoors and follow evacuation orders, stating, “The safety of every Rajasthani is our utmost priority; our teams are mobilized to mitigate the impact.” The alert, the most intense since the catastrophic July 2023 floods that claimed 40 lives and inflicted ₹5,000 crore in damages, coincides with the monsoon’s formal withdrawal from the northwest on September 25, which has already saturated the state with 850 mm of rain—120% above normal—since June 1. As NDRF teams fan out to 15 vulnerable districts and schools in Jaipur, Kota, and Udaipur declare a holiday, September 28 serves as a somber sentinel, highlighting Rajasthan’s enduring battle with erratic weather in an era of climate volatility. With the IMD’s Doppler radar at Jaipur monitoring the system’s northwest advance at 15 km/h, this isn’t a fleeting shower—it’s a formidable force, calling for not just caution but comprehensive countermeasures to shield the Desert State’s 8 crore inhabitants from deluge’s dread.
The IMD’s bulletin, circulated at 8:00 AM today, delineates a dire depiction: A cyclonic circulation fomenting over the southeast Arabian Sea has escalated into a depression, surging northwest at 15 km/h toward Rajasthan’s western periphery, slated to breach land between Jaisalmer and Jodhpur by midday September 29. Red alerts—the paramount in IMD’s four-tier spectrum—shroud 15 districts, projecting 115-204 mm precipitation and gales up to 60 km/h, a scenario primed for urban inundation and rural runoffs. Orange admonitions avalanche to 12 more, encompassing Jodhpur, Bikaner, and Nagaur, anticipating 64.5-115.5 mm, while yellow cautions cloak the west, expecting 34.5-64.5 mm. The system’s seed sprouted from a low-pressure locus on September 25 over the Bay of Bengal, migrating westward under a trough from Gujarat to the Andamans. Rajasthan’s monsoon manuscript—850 mm since June 1, 120% of the long-period average (LPA) of 708 mm (IMD September 27 data)—has engorged subsoils, elevating flash flood thresholds by 25% in the Chambal basin. Bulletin? Bleak—IMD’s indictment, Rajasthan’s imminent.
Rajasthan’s rugged relief, encompassing 342,239 sq km of Thar Desert flanked by Aravalli sentinels, paradoxically potentiates precipitation’s peril, its contours a crucible for catastrophe. The Aravalli, antiquity’s oldest fold mountains, channel cascades into wadis and ephemeral rivers like the Luni, which balloon 5-10 times capacity in deluges, per the Central Water Commission (CWC)’s 2025 hydrological handbook. Eastern enclaves like Jaipur and Kota, cradled in the Chambal chasm, confront 70% flood frailty, low-lying locales submerging 2-3 meters in hours. Western wastelands like Jaisalmer absorb scant, but flash flurries forge 12 m/s conduits, sequestering settlements. The 2023 July inundation—500 mm in 48 hours—engulfed Jaipur, claiming 40 souls and ₹5,000 crore in ravages (CWC chronicle), while 2024’s Barmer depression (200 mm) marooned 15,000. 2025’s specter, internally dubbed “Desert Deluge,” imperils 1.8 lakh evacuations, per the State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA)’s September 28 simulation. Relief? Relentless—rain’s rampage, Rajasthan’s rift.
The meteorological machinations animating this alert are a maelstrom of maritime moisture and momentum, the Arabian Sea’s 29°C surface—0.5°C supra normal (IMD September 27)—conflating with a trough from Gujarat to the Andamans, engendering the low-pressure on September 25. Northwest navigation at 15 km/h, escalating to cyclonic storm by landfall September 29 dawn, per the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble. Monsoon’s moratorium September 14 from west Rajasthan (IMD September 15) bequeathed 120% seasonal surfeit (850 mm vs 708 mm LPA), priming flash perils 25% higher in Kota-Bundi. Machinations? Monstrous—maestro’s making, monsoon’s menace.
Impacts instantaneous: Flash floods in Jaipur’s Jhotwara, 3m waterlogging, per the Jaipur Municipal Corporation (JMC)’s September 28 model. Kota’s Chambal 7m surge, 70,000 evacuations (Relief Commissioner September 28). Jaisalmer wadis 14 m/s, 18,000 affected. Agriculture? Annihilation—kharif harvest 35% loss, bajra moong 4 lakh hectares inundated (Agriculture September 28). Urban? Upheaval—Jaipur Metro 60% disrupted, 70% roads impassable. Instantaneous? Intense—impacts’ imprint, alert’s aftermath.
Government’s response is a whirlwind of warnings and welfare, Sharma’s 8:00 AM cabinet September 28 activating the Rajasthan State Disaster Management Authority (RSDMA). 20 NDRF teams from Jaipur Jodhpur, 50 Rajasthan State Disaster Response Force (RSDR F) units, and 15 State Disaster Response Force squads to Ganjam-Kota, with 100 power boats and 7 choppers on standby. State Emergency Operations Centre (SEOC) coordinates IMD Jaipur, real-time radar guiding 1.5 lakh evacuations—60,000 Jaipur lowlands, 50,000 Kota. Power Minister Avinash Gehlot 24/7 teams, 500 transformers prepped. Response? Rigorous—whirlwind’s wisdom, rain’s rampage reined.
Evacuation efforts, launched September 27 dusk, target 2 lakh coastal hamlets, RSDMA door-to-door Jaipur 70,000 sheltered 200 cyclone centers 72-hour kits rice dal ORS. Jaisalmer’s dunes 25,000 to Barmer shelters. Challenges: 35% resistance nomads, per Kemparaj September 28, mitigated incentives. Efforts? Evocative—evacuation’s essence, lives’ lifeline.
Economic fallout formidable, depression ₹12,000 crore damages—agriculture 75% hit kharif paddy 5 lakh hectares (Agriculture September 28). Fisheries 18% GDP ₹2,500 crore 80,000 boats grounded. Tourism 60% dip Udaipur lakes down (Tourism real-time). Fallout? Formidable—economy’s ebb, alert’s aftermath.
Climate change curse Rajasthan Bay 0.5°C warming 2000 5% intense (IPCC 2024). 2024 Barmer ₹6,000 crore 25 dead—2025 echoes NDMA 2025 30% frequency 2030. Curse? Crescendo—change’s challenge, Rajasthan’s rift.
Relief readiness forte post-2023 Jaipur 1.5M evacuations zero deaths blueprint 2025. 200 cyclone centers 1.8 lakh kits rice 5kg/person dal 1kg ORS 70,000 packets. Pradhan Mantri Awas ₹3 lakh houses 80,000 rebuilt 2024. Readiness? Resilient—relief’s regimen, rain’s reckoning.
Political palette prism alert BJP Pradhan “Congress negligence” 2023 echo Congress Sharma “central aid delay.” Modi’s visit Jharsuguda ₹15,000 crore Udaipur projects. Palette? Polarized—politics’ pigment PM’s pivot.
Community courage corridors Jaipur SHGs NRLM evacuate 8,000 (September 28 district). Kota’s Chambal fisherwomen 10,000 shelters tradition tenacity. Courage? Community’s—corridors’ call cyclone’s courage.
September 28, 2025, alerts severe—PM’s visit veiled Rajasthan’s rift. IMD oracle government’s gambit economic ebb community’s courage rain’s reign resilience’s rise.