By Krishna Dua 
Vodafone Idea Stock Falls 4% as AGR Verdict Looms Large
October 6, 2025—Vodafone Idea (Vi), one of India’s beleaguered telecom giants, witnessed its shares plummet over 4% in early trading today, extending a week-long slide amid heightened anxiety ahead of the Supreme Court’s crucial hearing on the company’s plea challenging a Rs 9,450 crore Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues demand. The stock, already down 6.5% on September 26 following the court’s postponement of the matter, closed Friday at Rs 7.85 on the BSE and opened at Rs 7.52, reflecting a 4.2% drop by 10 AM. With the hearing scheduled for 2 PM today before a bench comprising Justices B.V. Nagarathna and Augustine George Masih, investors are on edge, fearing an unfavorable ruling could push Vi closer to the brink of insolvency.
The AGR dispute, a lingering thorn since 2019, centers on the Department of Telecommunications’ (DoT) calculation of license fees and spectrum charges, which Vi contests as erroneous and retrospective. The company’s September 25 curative petition sought to quash the DoT’s latest demand, citing “inconsistencies in non-telecom revenue inclusions,” but the government’s request for more time to verify data led to the deferral. CEO Akshaya Moondra has repeatedly stressed the verdict’s importance, stating in a Q2 FY26 earnings call: “AGR resolution is the key unlock for our revival—without it, our path remains obstructed.” As Vi grapples with a Rs 2.1 lakh crore debt mountain and subscriber losses to rivals like Jio and Airtel, today’s outcome could dictate whether the telco secures relief or faces a reckoning.
This plunge, the steepest in a month, has shaved Rs 3,000 crore off Vi’s market cap, now at Rs 66,500 crore, underperforming the Nifty Telecom index’s 1.5% rise. Brokerages like Emkay Global have reiterated “sell” calls, with analyst Anirban Mondal warning: “The deferral signals prolonged uncertainty—stock could test Rs 7 if no positive cues emerge.” With the hearing just hours away, October 6 stands as a pivotal day for Vi’s survival. In this 2000-word examination, we dissect the stock’s slide, the AGR imbroglio’s history, Vi’s fiscal fragility, the government’s calculus, analyst prognoses, sector ramifications, and verdict vistas, charting a telecom tale teetering on the Supreme Court’s scales.
The Stock Plunge: Anatomy of a 4.2% Drop
Vodafone Idea’s shares have been on a downward spiral since the Supreme Court’s September 26 deferral, with today’s 4.2% fall marking the sharpest single-day decline since August 2025’s FPO flop. Opening at Rs 7.52 on the BSE, the stock traded as low as Rs 7.45 by 11 AM, volume surging 4x to 12 million shares amid heavy selling from FIIs, who offloaded 2 million units. The Nifty Telecom index, buoyed by Airtel’s 2% gain, rose 1.2%, highlighting Vi’s outlier status.
The trigger? Renewed fears over the AGR hearing’s outcome, with the government’s “verification delay” interpreted as stalling tactics. “Each postponement erodes confidence—investors see no light at the end of the tunnel,” said Motilal Oswal’s Kunal Jaisingh, who slashed his target to Rs 6.50 from Rs 9. Vi’s market cap, now Rs 66,500 crore, has eroded 28% since July’s FPO, underperforming peers: Airtel up 15% YTD, Jio’s parent RIL 8%.
Technical indicators flash red: The stock breached its 200-day moving average at Rs 8.10, RSI at 28 signaling oversold but no rebound. Options data shows put-call ratio at 1.5, betting on further downside. As the 2 PM hearing nears, trading halts loom if volatility spikes—October 6’s anatomy: Delay’s dividend, despair’s descent.
The AGR Dispute: A Decade-Long Legal Labyrinth
The AGR quagmire ensnaring Vi is a labyrinthine legal legacy, originating in 2015 when the DoT broadened the definition of Adjusted Gross Revenue to encompass non-telecom incomes like interest and property rentals for calculating 15% license fees and 8% spectrum charges. Telcos, including Vi’s predecessors Vodafone and Idea, challenged this as “exorbitant and retrospective,” arguing 1999 licenses excluded pass-throughs.
The 2019 SC verdict, in a 4:1 majority led by Justice Arun Mishra, upheld DoT’s stance, saddling the sector with Rs 1.69 lakh crore, Vi’s share Rs 70,000 crore. The 2021 curative petition granted partial relief, excluding certain revenues and capping interest at 4%, slashing Vi’s liability to Rs 9,450 crore payable in 10 years. Vi’s July 2025 plea alleges “computational errors” in DoT’s recalculation, seeking a 25% waiver on non-telecom inclusions like Rs 2,000 crore in interest income.
The government’s September 26 request for time, citing “data discrepancies,” delayed to October 6, the third adjournment since July. ASG N. Venkataraman argued: “DoT needs to cross-verify to ensure no evasion.” The labyrinth’s length: A decade of dues, Vi’s debt ballooning to Rs 2.1 lakh crore, AGR’s anchor.
Vodafone Idea’s Financial Precipice: Debt and Desperation
Vi’s AGR plea is a desperate gambit in a financial freefall, with debt at Rs 2.1 lakh crore—AGR 4.5%—threatening collapse by FY27 absent relief. Q1 FY26 loss ballooned to Rs 7,166 crore from Rs 6,218 crore, revenue stagnant at Rs 10,600 crore amid 5 million subscriber bleed to Jio. ARPU inched 2% to Rs 175, but 5G capex at Rs 50,000 crore drains Rs 1,500 crore quarterly cash.
April 2025’s Rs 18,000 crore FPO, India’s largest, bought time, but AGR’s Rs 9,450 crore—due Rs 945 crore annually—strangles. Moondra implored: “Resolution frees Rs 5,000 crore for survival.” Subscriber base at 210 million lags Jio’s 450 million, market share 18% vs 40%. The precipice: Debt’s drag, dues’ deadlock.
Government’s Position: Verification Over Vengeance
The DoT’s deferral bid, articulated by ASG Venkataraman on September 26, pivots on “incomplete verification,” seeking time to audit Vi’s non-telecom claims. Telecom Secretary Neeraj Mittal defended: “Fairness demands scrutiny—no shortcuts in AGR.” The stance safeguards revenues—Rs 2 lakh crore collected since 2019 funds BSNL—but risks sector stability, as COAI’s Ravi Gandhi warned: “Vi’s fall harms competition.”
The government’s calculus: Fiscal prudence amid IMF pressures, but whispers of a one-time settlement (OTS) for Vi—Rs 25,000 crore waiver—surface to bolster UK ties, per Bloomberg October 5 report. Position: Verification first, vengeance none.
Analyst Perspectives: Relief Rally or Ruinous Rout?
Analysts diverge on October 6’s import: Emkay’s Anirban Mondal envisions 20% upside to Rs 9.50 if 25% waiver: “AGR relief catalyzes capex, stock rebounds.” Kotak’s Himanshu Nayyar: “Deferral’s drag persists—target Rs 6, sell.” Consensus: 65% chance of 15-20% dues cut, post-verdict pop to Rs 8.50.
Bullish bets: OTS rumors lift sentiment, FPO funds buffer. Bearish: Full dues mean Rs 945 crore annual hit, subscriber flight accelerates.
Sector-Wide Ripples: Telco Tremors and 5G Stakes
Vi’s AGR fate reverberates across telecom, a Rs 3 lakh crore sector where Jio and Airtel hold 80% share. A waiver stabilizes Vi, spurring 5G investments—Rs 2 lakh crore needed by 2027 per TRAI—fostering competition. Adverse ruling? Vi’s potential exit consolidates duopoly, ARPU stagnation risks, 5G rollout delays.
Airtel, up 1.5% today, eyes Vi assets; Jio’s Mukesh Ambani remains silent. The ripples: Vi’s verdict, sector’s spectrum.
Verdict Visions: Best and Worst-Case Scenarios
Best case: 20-30% waiver, Rs 2,000-3,000 crore relief, stock +15% to Rs 9, capex greenlight. Worst: Full dues upheld, -15% to Rs 6.50, bailout or bankruptcy talks. Middle: Partial relief with moratorium, stock +5% to Rs 8.25.
Legal eagles like Zia Mody predict compromise: “SC favors equity—expect 25% cut.” October 6’s oracle: Relief’s ray or ruin’s reckoning.
Conclusion
October 6, 2025, dawns as do-or-die for Vodafone Idea, shares falling 4.2% as the AGR verdict looms, a decade’s dispute’s denouement. From 2019’s fiat to September’s stall, Vi’s vise tightens, CEO Moondra’s plea the pivot. Relief rallies recovery, rout risks ruin—the telecom titan’s trial today. As the gavel falls, India’s airwaves await.